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The Year That Was by Dan Ramer
I can't think of a better way of looking back than to review
my predictions from last year. As DVD grabs a bigger market share,
the studios will wrestle with consumer complaints of black
bars and tall thin pictures.
Based on Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) sales figures
from the week of November 16th, nearly 24.5 million
players have entered the market since the format was introduced
in '97. Clearly, we've moved beyond player sales which early adaptors
and home theater enthusiasts dominated. Video rental chains have
placed more and more optical product on the shelves and have begun
to reduce their commitment to VHS. According to VideoScan, for
the very first time in any single month, consumers bought more
DVD discs in October than prerecorded VHS tapes. The margin was
a narrow 50.7%, but DVD won. And in September and October, the
CEA reports that shipments of DVD players surpassed those for
VHS machines. DVD player penetration is now estimated to be 20%
of all U.S. households, but with mainstream acceptance came the
feared downside: casual viewer complaints about black bars and
its effect on the market.
When a title is expected to sell well, many studios try to satisfy
both the enthusiast and the casual viewer alike. Discs are produced
with an anamorphic transfer on one side (or less often, one layer)
and a non-anamorphic fullscreen presentation on the other. Titles
expected to be extremely popular sellers are offered as separate
editions (Jurassic Park, American Pie 2, and The
Princess Diaries come to mind). But when such a choice is
offered by the studios, some major video rental chains and some
prominent brick and mortar shops opt to stock the pan & scan
version exclusively, a direct result of their perceptions of customer
preferences, the casual viewer.
Even Warner Bros., the most supportive and outspoken advocate
of DVD, had a lapse of judgment in 2001. The studio was unprepared
for the outcry when Willy Wonka & The Chocolate Factory
was released only in a full screen version of that open matte
film. To Warner's credit, it responded with the release of an
anamorphic widescreen DVD two and one half months later. A similar
misstep almost occurred with Cats & Dogs. Fortunately,
we vocal anamorphic widescreen enthusiasts were right; the anamorphic
version of Wonka is currently outselling the fullscreen
version by a notable margin, at least on the web.
I'd be more concerned if it weren't for two factors: widescreen
DVDs almost always outsell their full screen counterparts; and,
I expect a reduction in pressure for full screen releases based
on my first prediction for 2002. That prediction is that monthly
sales of televisions in the 16x9 aspect ratio will outpace sets
in the 4x3 aspect ratio by the end of the year.
Some long awaited titles will finally be released on DVD.
Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Lawrence of Arabia,
Superman The Movie, more classic Disney animation, more
classic Universal horror, and Big Trouble in Little China
were among some of the more sought after titles released in 2001.
This year also marked a major milestone; the seemingly most uncooperative
filmmaker finally may have come around. After threatening to wait
until 2006, George Lucas finally released a Star Wars film
on DVD; Phantom Menace hit the street in October with a
splendid array of supplements (and a disappointing transfer plagued
by edge halos). As an unexpected bonus, Lucasfilm's Willow
was released about five weeks later. Most promising is Mr. Lucas'
reported statement that the new Star Wars films will be
released on DVD in line with industry practices, implying that
Attack of the Clones may be made available on DVD next
fall. Another recent story reports that Mr. Lucas explained that
the original films would take considerably longer to prepare for
DVD since supplementary materials were not created for video release
at the time of filming. Mr. Lucas, if you're looking for supplements,
perhaps I can once again suggest that the superb montage from
the THX WOW! Laserdisc be given a new anamorphic transfer
and a new remix in Dolby Digital EX. And from now on, please avoid
the halos.
For the enthusiasts among us, many titles that had been released
previously in a non-anamorphic widescreen edition were re-mastered
and offered in greatly improved anamorphic video, some as special
editions. Terminator, RoboCop, X-Files: Fight
The Future, 2001: A Space Odyssey, the Die Hard
trilogy, Fly Away Home, Silence of the Lambs,
The Princess Bride, Basic Instinct, Monty Python
& The Holy Grail, and Total Recall come to mind.
HDTV will double its penetration.
HDTV market penetration is essential for the introduction of
HD-DVD; as more consumers become accustomed to the splendid look
of high definition television, dissatisfaction with standard definition
DVD will place more pressure on studios and manufacturers to introduce
high definition discs. About 650,000 DTV products were sold in
2000. In 2001, prices continue to drop - well over 40% since 1998
- and over-the-air HDTV is slowly being rolled out countrywide,
spurring sales. Over one million DTV products were sold by November,
well on its way to doubling 2000's sales. The Consumer Electronics
Association estimates that DTV sales will again double next year
to over two million products with a value of $3.5 billion.
A major setback were the barbaric and devastating attacks on
the World Trade Center. All the primary digital transmitters for
New York City and the surrounding suburbs - WCBS, WNBC, WNYW,
WABC, WWOR, WPIX, and WNET - were located atop a WTC building.
Tragically, digital television engineers with rare and unique
knowledge were stationed above the impacts and perished with thousands
of other innocent victims. In New York, only WCBS currently transmits
in high definition from a backup site atop the Empire State Building.
It may be years before HDTV is restored fully in the largest television
market in the country. It remains to be seen how this situation
and the country's economic downturn will affect HDTV penetration.
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